How do you figure the singularity will happen with Moore's law coming to end, where the exponential growth has been bending into a S shaped curve for years, with 5% performance improvement per generation now?
By transferring to new computing domains. Quantum computers are a potential path, but we could also develop a neuron analog in silicon, or even create biological computer models.
It's evident that you haven't read this [kurzweilai.net], which answered this question over 14 years ago, before it was even relevant. Here's the relevant exerpt:
After sixty years of devoted service, Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the exponential growth of computing?
Don’t bet on it.
-- Ray Kurzweil, March 2001
The section after that, titled "Moore’s Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing", is where you'll find your answer.
FORTUNE'S FUN FACTS TO KNOW AND TELL:
A firefly is not a fly, but a beetle.
Moore's Law (Score:3)
How do you figure the singularity will happen with Moore's law coming to end, where the exponential growth has been bending into a S shaped curve for years, with 5% performance improvement per generation now?
Re: (Score:0)
By transferring to new computing domains. Quantum computers are a potential path, but we could also develop a neuron analog in silicon, or even create biological computer models.
Re: (Score:2)
After sixty years of devoted service, Moore’s Law will die a dignified death no later than the year 2019. By that time, transistor features will be just a few atoms in width, and the strategy of ever finer photolithography will have run its course. So, will that be the end of the exponential growth of computing?
Don’t bet on it.
-- Ray Kurzweil, March 2001
The section after that, titled "Moore’s Law Was Not the First, but the Fifth Paradigm To Provide Exponential Growth of Computing", is where you'll find your answer.