Interviews: Ask Freeman Dyson What You Will 181
Famous for his work in math, astronomy, nuclear engineering, and theoretical physics, Freeman Dyson has left his mark on almost every scientific discipline. He's won countless awards, and written numerous books on a wide range of topics both scientific and philosophical. One of his biggest contributions to science was the unification of the three versions of quantum electrodynamics invented by Feynman, Schwinger and Tomonaga. 10 years after moving to the U.S. he started working on the Orion Project, which sought to create a spacecraft with a nuclear propulsion system. STNG exposed the idea of a Dyson sphere to the masses, and his hypothetical plan for making a comet habitable with the help of genetically-engineered plants is a personal favorite. Mr. Dyson has graciously agreed give us a bit of his time in order to answer your questions. As usual, ask as many as you'd like, but please, one question per post.
Fewer Polymaths in the Modern World? (Score:5, Interesting)
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I would like to offer a smart reply to your obviously intelligent question, however I got stuck at the word "polymath".
And not for your ability to hold 6 liters of wine. (Score:2)
Why the United States? (Score:4, Interesting)
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Global Warming (Score:2, Interesting)
In the past you've been cited as a noted skeptic of man-made global warming. Has any of the recent events made you change your mind? Events such as the Arctic becoming completely free of ice, or Britain having snow-free winters?
Okay those events haven't actually happened yet, but eminent climate scientists have ran computer models and they say these things will happen very soon. Are you alarmed enough to change your stance on global warming?
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Please cite your sources on "the arctic becoming completely free of ice" and "Britain having snow-free winters" with both happening "very soon".
Thanks!
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http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html [independent.co.uk]
Got anything that wasn't written 13 years ago?
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Yep, in fact the real world is proving out Dyson's exact point. Warming has been lower than expected, there is still a ton of winter snowfall in Britain (in fact Britain just had an extremely cold winter) and the Arctic ice isn't close to being completely gone in summertime. Arctic ice did hit a low point last year, we'll see how it recovers this coming winter.
The other interesting thing to watch will be the influence of the next twenty to forty years of Solar Grand Minimum conditions. During the Maunder an
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Try this:
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21574461-climate-may-be-heating-up-less-response-greenhouse-gas-emissions [economist.com]
The chart shows that 1. Temperatures have risen but 2. Less than what current climate models predict at the 50% confidence level. It has almost broken the 10% level of confidence.
(Which means our current climate models are piss poor and predicting future events, and even less on the right course of action. This does not mean global warming is not happening – just that
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I believe you answered your own question.
He's not a skeptic (Score:5, Insightful)
I like the idea of this question but I think we need to reword it. Dyson is not a skeptic of global warming – he does believe we are having an impact. IIRC he holds the following views:
You can drive a mac truck though the holes in current models – but that is o.k. because Climatology is a young science and is still developing. What it does mean is that the error bars should be set way further apart and the long term impacts are uncertain.
Because the models are poor, it is hard to come up with specific advice and course of actions. For example, should biomass be encouraged as a energy source? The fuel itself is carbon naturel but production often takes places on marginal lands – where farming could increase greenhouse gases.
So, current plans are huge, expensive, and of unknown value to solve for a future problem with unknown costs.
The future will offer better models that will give better specific advice. Future technology will lower the cost of implanting a fix.
Balance that against current problems with known impact and known costs to cure – for example – world poverty (poor education, unclean water, etc.)
The answer therefore is to wait (If I understand what Dyson has been saying I agree with most of what he says – expect that I think that the future costs will grow faster than the advance of future technology so we should start now – but I am not an optimist).
Or is he? (Score:2)
I heard him give a talk a few years back and he struck me as pretty skeptical. He did not say that more atmospheric CO2 would not increase temperatures, but the gist of his talk was that the extra CO2 that we were putting into the atmosphere should be pretty easily absorbed by green plants and oceans, so we did not need to worry about warming. I doubt that he would give the same talk today.
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You views, which are nuanced, have been simplified in the public press into a anti-climate change position. What is your view on man-made global warming? What specific areas of research or course of action do you recommend?
I think this works better as a question - more open ended.
Informed Public Policy (Score:4, Insightful)
(So, the above question got me to thinking on how science is communicated, and since only a single question is allowed per post.)
Often society is faced with technically complex, nuanced issues. In cases where the evidence is incomplete, technical experts have yet to reach a consensus, yet broad public support is needed. Is there any practical course of action you would like to see? Better science education? Depolarizing the issues by delegating authority to blue ribbon panels staffed by experts?
I am asking because I see your view on climate change being simplified to the point of distortion. You also experienced J. Robert Oppenheimer, security hearing in 1954, where there is speculation that the inquire was triggered not because of security concerns but by rival scientist.
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I am not sure I am following your reasons. Can you explain? This is where I am coming from.
There are a lot of public policy questions that don't require broad support. Consider the difference between supporting the Apollo program (10 years, a significant chunk of our nations GNP) verse the International Space Station – a very small part of the budget which is kept alive by a few space nuts (and I would like to send out a thank you to those space nuts! Thanks for keeping the dream alive.)
People always
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In the past you've been cited as a noted skeptic of man-made global warming.
Freeman Dyson is NOT an AGW skeptic! He has been quite clear about this. He accepts the evidence that it is happening. But he also believes that many of the policies and proposals for dealing with it are misguided and poorly prioritized. I tend to agree with him. We are pouring tens of billions into subsides for solar and wind technologies, but poor countries, that are generating an increasingly large fraction of CO2, cannot afford those subsidies. We would be far better off if we spend that money on
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I would be much more interested in the role of convective heat transfer in the climate models he inspected. It is clear that this is much more important on the surface than radiative transfer and I'd certainly like to know whether they can make a decent job of modeling it or not.
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Surely, someone who thinks a Dyson sphere is a useful appliance is a firm believer in the goodness of global warming.
Eduication (Score:4, Interesting)
Tell me, what do you consider more useful (Score:1)
A crowbar, or a gravity gun?
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trick question its the portal gun of course
Global Climate Engineering? (Score:3)
Eco mass histeria (Score:4, Interesting)
Are you saddened by the fact that fears in the general populace prohibit the use of nuclear technologies for space exploration?
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Targets for the Space Industry (Score:5, Interesting)
Given that we finally seem to have a vital and growing private space industry, what do you think the likeliest successful target for long term space industrialization/exploitation/habitation is? The Moon, near earth asteroids, Mars?
Re:Targets for the Space Industry (Score:5, Interesting)
On a related note do you think that trying/learning to build a space station with artificial gravity and radiation shielding should be a priority rather than trying to put humans on Moon or Mars?
What do you believe but cannot prove? (Score:3, Interesting)
Re:What do you believe but cannot prove? (Score:4, Informative)
I think you are mistaken about how theories work.
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Sorry about the nitpicking, but since this site is fairly science oriented I think it is in order to do so. And since most readers come here to learn, why not learn from me?
In all other areas of life the word theory is interchangeable with "hunch", "idea" and "guesstimation".
In science theory has a much more specific meaning. As I've understood it (swedish being my native tongue where the meaning of similar words differ a bit) you start out with an "idea" coming from thin air or a small amount of evidence,
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if there is no evidence it is not theory but merely an unsupported hypothesis.
The Psuedo-sanctity of Life (Score:1)
Elon Musk and Mars (Score:3)
Elon Musk seems to be someone with big dreams who then makes them happen. But the biggest and most difficult dream seems to be his desire to colonize Mars. In what realm of possibility would you put his goal of a self-sustaining Mars colony starting with 10 and scaling to 80,000 people?
Nuclear Freeze Movement (Score:5, Interesting)
Professor Dyson
I had the pleasure of listening to you speak at Caltech in the 1980s about the Nuclear Freeze Movement. You were a supporter even though you indicated that since the number of nuclear weapons was decreasing (at that time), keeping the current number of nuclear weapons was not desirable.
Thirty years have passed. Do you think this movement accomplished any of their goals?
Thank you.
Social Engineering (Score:3)
What are your thoughts on social engineering as it applies to near future changes in human relationships.
In your considerable opinion, does this allow for species change in a positive or negative fashion when relating to extra planetary exploration?
Awesome! (Score:4, Funny)
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Half Life too.
What's your hunch on conciousness? (Score:5, Interesting)
Consciousness is unlike anything I've encountered in any of the sciences. How should we direct our efforts in explaining this glaringly evident fact in the world?
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How about "Do you like xkcd?"
The Sun, the Genome and the Internet (Score:5, Interesting)
On the question of near/faster-than-light travel (Score:5, Insightful)
In my understanding, the concepts of nuclear pulse propulsion that were investigated in the Orion Project had the highest real potential for generating enormous energies required for "faster" travel in space than anything we have, even today. I have always felt that it is a tragedy that this research couldn't be taken further into our modern realities of exploration.
Today, we have NASA exploring the potential (on a very small scale) of faster than light (FTL) travel using ideas such as the Alcubierre drive [wikipedia.org]. In common discussion, we now hear about things such as: dark matter, quantum teleportation, FTL particles in the form of cosmic rays, the likely discovery of the Higgs Boson, spacetime, etc. These appear, to the layman like myself, to be serious discussions, with new realities and new possibilities being discovered every day.
The entirety of the NASA space program as we know it has developed within the last 60 years.
Given the advances in technology we have made in such a short time, the laws of physics, and the realities of the politics of our world, do you think it is feasible that we will develop the ability for very fast, near or faster-than-light travel in the next 60 years, and which direction seems the most feasible to you?
Thank you for your contributions to science, I am humbled to be able to ask this question of you!
FTL is a misnomer (Score:2)
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Even with nuclear power, getting "near light speed" is still quite difficult. Basically, to accelerate a mass to an appreciable fraction of the speed of light, you need to expend on order of the same mass equivalent in energy (equivalently, moving at relativistic speeds means your kinetic energy is similar to your rest mass energy).
Nuclear processes, either fission or fusion, only actually "convert" a small fraction of the "fuel" mass to energy. This is a huge amount of energy compared to chemical reactions
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You are perfectly correct of course, however these are pesky engineering problems :-) At least it is not theoretically impossible.
Transhumanism, Moore's Law, etc... (Score:5, Interesting)
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I suspect you already know the answer to this one. Optimistic, of course.
We all know Moore's Law can't last. Computing speed, like most improvements, follows an S-curve. At first, slow improvement as an idea becomes known and accepted, then rapid improvement as the easier stuff with big dividends is worked on, then diminishing returns as we reach for harder and more marginal improvements. It's that way in oil exploration and extraction, and automobile and engine design, and it will be that way in Tran
Seriously????? (Score:1)
Ok, in a country that is smaller than some PARKS we have in the US, HOW DO YOU NOT KNOW your own cousins?
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Whoops, apparently there's a problem, I intended to comment on another article. Sorry!
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...apparently there's a problem
PEBKAC identified.
Warp Drive (Score:3)
NASA has a small research project going looking at some fundamental aspects of a warp drive based on the theories of Miguel Alcubierre. [space.com] Many people openly deride such an effort, others are merely skeptical, a smaller number curious, and even fewer cautiously optimistic.
Where to do fall in this spectrum and why?
Are We Doomed? Why/why not? (Score:3)
What is a realistic "first step" into space? (Score:4, Interesting)
What do you view as the most realistic way for humanity to get its space legs (in a permanent fashion)? Drag an asteroid into orbit and use it to build cyclers? One-way Mars settlement missions? Something else?
I've heard a lot of cool ideas about things we could do once we're in space (Dyson spheres, etc) but we lack anything more than a toehold on the lowest rung of a long, long ladder and it seems like a chicken-and-egg problem.
Where will we be in 50 years? (Score:2, Interesting)
You've seen technology shift dramatically in your lifetime. Humanity had barely launched its first rockets when you were born, and you got to see humans walk on another planet (or at least, moon). What do you think I will be able to see before I die?
Fringe ideas (Score:5, Interesting)
The fringes of science are filled with all sorts of disreputable, crackpot ideas. Most are worthless, but every now and then one turns out to be true (e.g. Wegener's continental drift). Are there any such "cocktail party theories" that you intrigue you, and that you believe might deserve further investigation?
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Sim Universe (Score:2)
So at first I thought it was just Will Wright saying this, and that he was off his rocker, but some actual scientific work is going to try and prove it.
What are your thoughts? Wagers? Derisive laughter perhaps?
The Eventual Future (Score:2)
global warming: genetic engineering and coal death (Score:4, Interesting)
Have Methods or Knowladge been "Lost"? (Score:3)
Looking back over your career throught most of the 20th centruy and into the 21st, have you ever observed certain knowladge, techniques or disiplines fade away over time?
Are there ways of doing or thinking about physics and mathematics which were prevalent in the past, but which are no longer common knowladge? How do you compare the abilities and backgrounds of modern professors and graduates to those of the past?
Mr. Dyson. Is AI more important than space travel? (Score:4, Interesting)
While space travel is important for human survival in the long term, the more I think about it, the more it seems that developing a human style, scalable, artificial intelligence has for more potential to provide humans with rapid access to a much larger set of useful answers in the general domain of practical, solvable problems.
The investment should be, relatively speaking, trivial, and we already have 7 billion or so working models, so I think it's fairly certain that this can be done.
Given a choice, would you advocate more resources be allocated to space travel, or AI?
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While space travel is important for human survival in the long term, the more I think about it, the more it seems that developing a human style, scalable, artificial intelligence has for more potential to provide humans with rapid access to a much larger set of useful answers in the general domain of practical, solvable problems.
The investment should be, relatively speaking, trivial, and we already have 7 billion or so working models, so I think it's fairly certain that this can be done.
Given a choice, would you advocate more resources be allocated to space travel, or AI?
I hear there's this computer called Deep Thought... programmed by a bunch of mice.
From your vantage... (Score:2)
What do you see as our greatest threat and conversely our greatest hope?
Inside of this question, there's a poorly defined question space, and it's dancing around something like "Do you see the technology and the thinking that gave us technology as the source or our current woes?, the solution to our current woes?, both? and what should we be paying attention to that we aren't paying attention to inside of the charging juggernaut that our technology has become.
Do you see a winner? (Score:2)
As I watch all the disparate technologies competing for the emergence of a new kind of sentience, what do you see as the probable winner, inorganic (current digital technologies) or organic (biotech - synthetic biology.) As we have begun to tinker with our own genome, how long do you think it will be before we break out of the strict barriers of our special limitations?
Favorite topic? (Score:2)
As someone who has made major contributions to multiple areas of knowledge, which has been your favorite, and why?
PS - I thought "Disturbing the Universe" and "From Eros to Gaia" were magnificent - thank you!
Why are you behaving in the role of narcissist ? (Score:2)
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You need to review Dyson's bio a little more closely. He was one of the first physicists to work on global warming at all, and I would venture to say that a lot of the experimental work that's been taken place in the last 20 years has happened because of his prompting.
'A glorious accident' (Score:3, Interesting)
In 1993 you participated in the dutch VPRO television series 'Een schitterend ongeluk' ('A glorious accident'), with a very long, interesting and openhearted interview and an encounter with 6 top scientists of different disciplines. I recently watched the series again, and it totally lived up to the fond memories I had from 20 years ago. I can't remember any other non-fiction television making such an impression on me!
What recollections do you have from the interview and the encounter? Did it have some impact on your (scientific) views?
Thank you
It is your last day... (Score:2)
The Future of Physicists (Score:3)
Complexity Theory (Score:2)
Warp Drive (Score:2)
Should we not distinguish "general" evolution? (Score:2)
Before my question, I'd like to express some gratitude for the influence of your work on my life. My first experience of your ideas was through your book Infinite In All Directions which I purchased when it was newly published (circa 1990). On the front cover my edition there is a blurb from the Washington Post Book World which reads:
That's not how
selection pressure against "random" (Score:2)
I've always had a harsh relationship with terminology that subtly obscures. As such, I hated the term "junk DNA" from the moment I first encountered it long ago, instinctively reading it as "when sequenced, consumes huge amounts of grant money for results I can't publish". It struck me as ludicrous on its face that a combinatorial system engaged in adaptive "tuning" would eschew linearity where it could inject some on the cheap. We now know that much of the noncoding DNA is under heavy selection pressure
How's best to encourage oneself ? (Score:3)
Dear Dr. Dyson,
You're obviously a person who knows how entice yourself into doing something - even when that something has become boring and routine
Would you mind sharing with us in what way you encourage yourself to carry on in what you have been doing, and in overcoming fears of the unknown when you are about to do things that you have never done before (facing new challenges) ?
What are your views on the current state of fusion (Score:3)
I am of the opinion that without economical fusion, humanity will not last more than a few thousand years. I am also of the opinion that most fusion research funding is targeted at projects with little or no application to economical fusion (I see no evidence that tokamaks or inertial confinement will ever be economical. In fact, all evidence seems to suggest they will never be economical). What are your views on the current state of fusion research? Is funding misplaced? Disproportionately allocated?
Thanks! I 'man aspiring scientist, and you're one of my personal hero's, so it's quite incredible to have the chance to ask you a question (even if it only has a small chance of being answered).
Future of physics (Score:2)
Professor Dyson, you have been an actor and a witness of the huge expansion of hard sciences into everyday life. Thanks to scientific progress, particularly in the understanding of the basic physical laws, we have been able to improve our way of life almost beyond belief: energy, transport, and even exploration, now going beyond our planet all have been hugely transformed in the last 100 years.
However in the last few decades, our understanding of physics has become good enough for "most" things, and physics
What if we don't develop effective space travel? (Score:2)
What, in your opinion, will be the effect on humankind if we do not develop economical, effective space travel? How do you think the species will evolve?
Parenting Esther Dyson (Score:4, Interesting)
Spiritual / Religious and Scientific approaches (Score:2)
Professor Dyson,
In accepting the Templeton Prize for "an exceptional contribution to affirming life's spiritual dimension, whether through insight, discovery, or practical works", you are marked for having a spiritual / religious side at a level of excellence/standing that is internationally recognised. What has this recognition meant to you, compared to your scientific achievements or insights?
A better solution than Dyson Spheres? (Score:2)
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that little business of required tensile strength on the order of the binding force of atomic nucleons seems pesky, besides needing to convert many masses of 20 jupiters to energy to spin it up (or harnessing the total output of the sun for centuries)
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that little business of required tensile strength on the order of the binding force of atomic nucleons seems pesky, besides needing to convert many masses of 20 jupiters to energy to spin it up (or harnessing the total output of the sun for centuries)
I didn't say either was easy. But at least it has a basis in physics instead of relying on non-existent gravity generators. If you don't have those, than you have to spin the Sphere as well.
Sequel (Score:2)
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http://www.amazon.com/Warp-Speed-1/dp/1416520635 [amazon.com]
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So, if I were king of a shy advanced civilization, I'd try to hide by turning my home system into one of the most intriguing scientific objects in the universe, that every other highly advanced civilization would devote immense research efforts to seeking out and understanding, instead of blending in with all the boring regular matter brown dwarfs. Definitely what I'd do. Any shy advanced civilizations want to make me king?
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Actually, I've been thinking that a Dyson Sphere might look for all the world(s) like a brown dwarf star. Such a sphere would be unlikely to be a solid object, but clouds of gravitationally and electromagnetically bound computational devices collecting solar energy then passing it back as waste heat, each successive layer lengthening the wavelength of the energy that came form the star and turning the difference into useful computational work. What spills out the last layer is tepid by any reasonable measur
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There are other forces at work besides gravity. The star has a solar wind. If you have countless small intelligent devices poised out at the place where gravity and the solar wind cancel, and these devices are dynamically connected through a variety of energies and forces including EMR including lasers and possibly masers further back, and the collective gravitational force they all exert on one another, It would seem to me a nonsolid shell of computational matter could effectively envelope a star, absorb m
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There are other forces at work besides gravity. The star has a solar wind. If you have countless small intelligent devices poised out at the place where gravity and the solar wind cancel, and these devices are dynamically connected through a variety of energies and forces including EMR including lasers and possibly masers further back, and the collective gravitational force they all exert on one another, It would seem to me a nonsolid shell of computational matter could effectively envelope a star, absorb most of it's energy and use some of that energy to maintain it's relative position around that star. It is an interesting questions.
The terms you use are interesting and entertainng but are in a scientific sense not much more than blowing air. (or bytes if you will) On a non solid shell, what you are going to stand on.? Making something of computaitonal matter has no meaning outside of an old Dr. Who episode. And EMR is generally used as a term regarding the long term effects of your computer monitor. Fact is the shell needs gravity to be useful, or at least a downward force if your trees, water, people, and buildings aren't just go
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If a Dyson sphere did not vent an equal amount of energy as produced internally, the interior of the sphere would quickly heat up and roast everything inside.
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They're expensive because they use nanoscopic black holes as the vacuum source. That's why they run without electricity and you never have to empty them out.
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And they leave your Higgs Bosons smelling minty fresh!
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Hello, professor Dyson.
Which option do you believe should be researched first: gas core reactor rocket engines or thermonuclear rocket engines? While the gas core technology is simpler and would allow practical interplanetary flight within the Solar System, shouldn't we (the Humankind) research first the thermonuclear rocket engines technology that would make interstellar flight feasible? Thanks in advance!
There's really not much point in going to other star systems without a practical method of traveling to the planets within them. It would be like building the Starship Enterprise without a working transporter or shuttlecraft system.